Buy, Hold, Sell – Round 12

First and foremost, this is the last week before the BYES start, so get out the bye schedule and make sure your team is ready!

BUY
Firstly let’s take a quick look over the main guys that are relevant and are on the bubble:

Tom Lee (ST.K) $123.9k DEF, 66 Average, -60 Breakeven

Put two good weeks back-to-back before being dropped back to reserves and hasn’t been sighted for a couple of weeks now. With Fisher and Goddard both going down on the weekend could be a nice inclusion this week.

Rhys Mathieson (BRIS) $117.3k MID, 56 Average, -42 Breakeven
Looked like he had cemented a spot in the best 22 at Brisbane with two serviceable first up games, only to be dropped, maybe he could take advantage of Allen Christiansen’s misfortune and take his spot?

Samuel Collins (FREO) $117.3k DEF, 79 Average, -89 Breakeven
Probably the pick of the ‘Bubble Boys’ this round and with what seems to be excellent job security. If you can find a spot for him I think he wil be worth getting and will give you great bench coverage for a while to come.

Harry Marsh (SYD) $117.3k DEF, 46 Average, -22 Breakeven
Harry has received his chance due to the unfortunate circumstances with Ted Richards, but has played the role nicely given to him, how many more games will he get? That is not clear but if named this week he should be considered.

Thomas Cole (WCE) 117.3k DEF/MID, 44 Average, -19 Breakeven
Only got his second game on the weekend because of a late omission so obviously the job security isn’t there, but if he gets named could be worth considering mainly because of his dual position status which could come in handy, later in the season.

Majak Daw (NM) $243.6k RUCK/FWD, 92 Average, -38 Breakeven
Probably gets a run in nearly every other team in the competition just on raw ability, but he’s behind the games most dominant ruck in the game Todd Goldstein and Ben Brown, meaning his opportunities seem few and far between.

FALLEN PREMIUMS
DEFENDERS

Jeremy Howe (COLL) DEF/FWD, $510.9k, Average 89, Breakeven 79
You’re probably asking yourself “why bother mentioning him?”
Two reasons: firstly that all important dual position status and the fact that he has now put five hundreds back to back, arguably the most in form defender/ forward in the comp.

Josh Gibson (HAW) DEF,  $478.1k, Average 100, Breakeven 64
OK, can put in a stinker every now and then, but a defender averaging 100 for under $500k, Hello!
What a steal.

Brodie Smith (ADEL) DEF/MID, $394.8k, Average 81, Breakeven 43
Once again its the dual position status that probably interests me most of all but he has found a little bit of form recently as well, hence the nice breakeven. He oozes class but can go missing, so a big risk vs reward scenario.

Matthew Suckling (WB) DEF/FWD, $398.1k, Average 83, Breakeven 32
Yes and again dual position status, with his injury effected 17pts now finally leaving his three round average he will be going up considerably over the next few weeks off the back of scores 96 and 110.
Now is the time to buy if you like him.

MIDFIELDERS

Tom Mitchell (SYD) MID, $537.5k, Average 109, Breakeven 13
Has been in beast mode in the last couple and is due for a considerable price rise. Won’t be this cheap any time soon.

Tom Rockliff (BRIS) MID, $500.4k, Average 97, Breakeven 54
Wowsers! 204 points last week on his return from yet another injury. I guess that’s the main concern though isn’t it? His ‘injuries’.
If Rocky is injury free he is a must in any side as he has the ability to go huge. Gamble.

Gary Ablett (GC) MID, $558.7 k, Average 115, Breakeven 70
Is he finally back to his best??
Let’s hope so, it’s the cheapest you will get him for a while.

Joel Selwood (GEEL) MID, $514.7k, Average 109, Breakeven 76
It’s always the way… You don’t poke the beast. After a couple of lean weeks, Selwood has returned, on the weekend he basically dragged Geelong over the line with a huge last quarter on the way to posting 150pts for his owners. $514K is a great price for a star of the game.

FORWARDS

All premium forwards on the weekend were, let’s say, ordinary, so you will be getting some great bargains shortly.
Two of note going forward are:

Chad Wingard (PA) FWD, $461.3k, Average 85, Breakeven 30
Has finally put a couple of good scores together for his disgruntled owners (I’m one of those) and now looks set to start recouping some of his lost cash. I’d still be weary of bringing him in.

Daniel Wells (NM) FWD/MID, $463.4k, Average 101, Breakeven 36
Was going to put him in my midfield write up, such has been his amazing out put this year, just keeps on keeping on. If you don’t have him it’s not too late, he will be a keeper.

SELL, HOLD
I’m not going to tell you to sell/hold anybody this week as it all depends on your set up for the bye rounds.
So it simply comes down to who you can sell with out jeopardising your next three weeks.

Good luck
Paul


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