The Mid-Price Player Trap

Thanks to the great work done by the guys at SuperCoach Scores, which you can read in full here, I am going to focus on the biggest question facing all SuperCoach players in 2016 – whether to pick Tom Liberatore, Jaeger O’Meara and Brad Crouch.

tom liberatore supercoach 2016 jaeger o'meara supercoach 2016 Brad Crouch supercoach 2016

Every year mid-price players tease us into thinking that picking them is going to help us shoot up the overall ranking as well as help us save cash for when it’s time to upgrade our rookies. It just so happens that this year, there are three players who many believe are must haves.

When we weigh up the pros and cons for selecting one, two, or all three of these mid-priced young-guns it is important to remember that to become a keeper in the midfield you should be averaging 110+, with 105 the lowest acceptable average.

Consequently, given that Liberatore is the only one of these players who has averaged over 100 in his career the other two would likely have to be used as stepping stones onto another premium.
It is at this stage that I would suggest that if you go ahead and select Liberatore you are doing so with the belief that he will become a keeper. If you don’t think he can average over 105, is he worth picking?

Crouch and O’Meara are just cheap enough that they can be used as ‘cash-cows’.

So how players become good ‘cash-cows’? Generally speaking, we look for an increase in $150,000 as the minimum acceptable cash we want our rookies or cash-cows to make. $175,000 is good, $200,000 is excellent and anything over $200,000 is unbelievable.

Here is where things get a little tricky, as no-one can predict the future. If we pick Crouch and JOM, ideally we hope that they could average 100 points per game. In the predictions below, they score 100 each match.

Brad Crouch supercoach 2016 Jaeger O'Meara supercoach 2016

As the images above demonstrate, Crouch reaches the minimum accepted cash increase in Round 7 and O’Meara in Round 8, just as we would be looking to downgrade them and use the cash for upgrades after the bye rounds.

The problem I am having with justifying picking Crouch and O’Meara  is the fact that they have to average such high amounts to be worthy ‘cash-cows’.

For me this is the most damning piece of evidence when deciding whether to select Libba, JOM or Crouch:

supercoach rookie price predictions

Rookies priced at close to the minimum only have to average a measly 70 points to make the exact same amount of money in effectively the same amount of time as Crouch and O’Meara.

Each year there are always rookies that exceed expectations and it is quite possible that selecting these rookies will result in easier cash generation than if we were too select JOM or Crouch and too a lesser extent, Libba.

Lastly, to finish, remember that picking Crouch, O’Meara and Liberatore is going to take up a fair amount of budget which could be the difference between picking a ‘super-premo’ (Ablett, Danger, Pendles etc) instead of a ‘possible premium’ (anyone $550k and below), and that for every mid-price player you could instead be picking two low priced rookies who don’t need to score anywhere near as well as the mid-priced players.

Selecting mid-price players is risk that I don’t see paying off, and for that reason it will be premiums and rookies only for me this year.
We highly recommend that you check out KLo30’s in-depth analysis of this situation for greater detail.


5 thoughts on “The Mid-Price Player Trap

  1. Amazing article mate. Really in depth analysis. I’ve already locked in Libba and lost the key. In terms of Crouch or O’Meara, I’m still deciding. How many over 550K Premos do u recommend for the midfield? Currently I have four.

    Like

    1. Cheers mate. I too have locked in Libba and his intra-club performance probably means so will every other supercoach team – which is the only thing putting me off getting him. As for 550K premos I have 6 + Libba who will probably end up there sooner rather than later. Regarding how many I would recommend – I would say no less than how many you have now. Having 4, 5 or 6 I reckon is the way to go considering the uncertainty re premiums in other lines. Hope this helps

      Like

      1. Nice Matthew. Did u spend less on the defence and forward line or have u selected cheaper premiums? Who are your six?

        Like

      2. I’ve selected a few cheaper premiums Bartel, Franklin, Brodie Smith, Zac Williams, Lobbe, McGlynn and Wells and the rest are rookies or players returning from injury. My six premiums are Fyfe, Dangerfield, Pendles, Ablett, Hanners and Rockliff with Libba by M7

        Like

      3. Interesting. I suppose you have selected players who are make-or-break. It’s a high risk-high reward strategy and I respect you for it. Ive gone for a few of pods in KK, Greene and Zorko. Hopefully it all works out well for both of us.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.